Yesawich and Shenfeld headline HAC Show 2010

Peter Yesawich (left) and Avery Shenfeld

TORONTO—While most people are predicting a modest improvement in the economy and North American tourism, Hotel Association of Canada conference headliner, Peter Yesawich, had a more colourful way of describing it.

In stock trading there’s something known as the “triple witching hour” — the last hour in the trading day of the third week of the quarter, which is traditionally the most volatile.  In another version of the triple witching hour, he sees three forces shaping Canadian tourism over the coming year—technology, lifestyles and social values, and demography.

Technology now means the traveller can check the lowest fares or rates online.  Right now, only five per cent of travellers are aware of this so-called “metasearch” capability,” says Yesawich.  “What happens when it becomes 10 per cent?”

One of the most prominent lifestyle trends is “the new culture of impatience” and a resulting need to hurry up and relax.  Hotels are embracing scent marketing to promote relaxation. Twice as many adults say they’re interested in spas than are interested in playing golf.  And airports provide the greatest opportunity for full service spas, as travellers face delayed or cancelled flights.

And of course, demographics and an aging population will also affect business and leisure travel trends.

Baby steps toward recovery

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, joined Yesawich on the stage during the HAC conference at the Fairmont Royal York hotel on Feb. 4. 

He told HAC delegates that 2010 will see baby steps on the road back to economic recovery.

Emerging markets will play a role. Years ago “made in Japan” was synonymous with cheap trinkets made with cheap labour—like “made in China” today.  But the annual savings in the Chinese economy now exceed the savings by Americans.  Just as we saw waves of Japanese tourists a few years back, now we can expect to see tourists from other developing economies such as China and India.

And the resources used in those economies are tied to better economic growth in our resource-intensive provinces in 2010 and 2011.

To summarize, here’s what Shenfeld had to say about the Canadian tourism industry.

• The U.S. and Canada can expect weaker than normal recoveries during the next two years, with growth of 2.0 to 2.5 per cent.
• Americans will be cautious about discretionary spending in 2010.
• The “frost” surrounding business travel is beginning to thaw.
• The Canadian dollar will remain not far from parity against the American dollar.
• Ontario will experience above average economic growth in 2010, but Western Canada will take the growth lead again by 2011.
• Inflation and wages will be contained by the slack in the market.