STR’s forecasts, Select Canadian Markets for Dec 09

STR's Updated forecasts for 2010, 2011

HENDERSONVILLE, TN—The U.S. hotel industry is projected to end 2010 with decreases in two of the three key performance measurements, according to STR’s monthly forecast update.

STR projects 2010 occupancy to be flat at 55.1 per cent, ADR to decrease 3.2 per cent to US$94.39, and revenue per available room to drop 3.2 per cent to US$51.99.

Supply growth and demand growth during 2010 are both expected to increase 1.8 per cent.

Source: Smith Travel Research

“We have believed for quite some time that it will take the better part of 2010 for the hotel industry to regain its footing,” said Mark Lomanno, president of STR. “Our latest forecast reflects what we believe will be a somewhat challenging first half of the year. Momentum will build in the second half of 2010, which will lead to the beginning of a turnaround in 2011.

“The high-end business travellers will drive the shape of recovery almost certainly,” Lomanno added. “There has been substantial recovery at the high end of the market during the last couple of months.”

The outlook indicates that the industry’s performance will turn positive in 2011. STR projects increases in all three key performance metrics during 2011: Occupancy is projected to increase 2.2 per cent to 56.3 per cent; ADR is forecasted to rise 2.0 to US$96.28; and RevPAR is expected to grow 4.2-per cent to US$54.18.

Supply in 2011 is projected to be up 1.0 per cent and demand is expected to increase 3.2 per cent.

Canadian Lodging Outlook for December 2009